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College Football 2021 Season


Phidippides
(@phidippides)
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Looks like Louisville might hold on to upsetting UCF. 


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Phidippides
(@phidippides)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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Topic starter  

Wow, as I was writing that, UCF tied it up 35-35 late in the 4th.  Louisville came back to score and held on.  Close one.


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Donald Baker
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Satterfield is off the hot seat for now.  Great win for us.

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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Phidippides
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I'm in a College Football pick 'em group of 50 people on Yahoo.  Every week, we pick the winners of about 30-40 games (Top 25, and other big team games), and assign confidence points for each game.  The winner is whoever has the most confidence points at the end of the season. 

I've been playing it for years and I used to look at sports betting odds to help me.  However, it was really hard to do this is a reliable way (how do you easily compare a 16/5 favorite, against a 9/4 favorite, and a 3/1 favorite?).

So a few years ago I decided to systematize it all.  I noticed that every week, ESPN has its "Matchup Predictor" that gives a winning and losing percentage for each team in a matchup.  I used this data and found a way to put it into a spreadsheet for every matchup, as well as a way to sort the data, so I can then put my picks into Yahoo.

Once I started doing this, things took off. In 2016, I ended up as the 10th team of 25 teams in my league that year.  Then, in 2017, I was 2nd of 41 teams, in 2018, I was #1 of 36 teams, and in 2019 I was #1 of 47 teams. 

I'm currently tied for #1 of 50 teams, but the season is still young. 

The bottom line is that over time, data really works well, and the data from the ESPN Matchup Predictor is pretty good.


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Donald Baker
(@donaldbaker)
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Lol using pivot tables are we now?  What fun is that?

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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Phidippides
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Lol, I hadn't heard of "Pivot Table" so I had to look that one up. 

I guess I will have to use the same defense that Charles Reade used when he was accused of plagiarism: "It is true that I milked three hundred cows into my bucket, but the butter I churned was my own." 😂


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Phidippides
(@phidippides)
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Louisville plays another evenly-matched opponent this weekend in Florida State.  I have the Cardinals winning but only barely (I think they have around a 53% chance of winning).  Why can't they play any games where they're the heavy favorite?


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Donald Baker
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We are not good enough to be a heavy favorite.  We have to play our A game to win.

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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Phidippides
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So Alabama lost, and now Georgia is the undisputed #1.  Here is the rest of the top 11 (I included 11 here because it's amazing that Kentucky is this high, and we might never see it happen again 😆 ).

1 6-0    
2 6-0    
3 5-0    
4 6-0    
5 5-1    
6 5-1    
7 5-1    
8 6-0    
9 4-1    
10 6-0    
11

So what do you make of it?  How will it change by the end of the season?  I think Alabama is going to claw its way back up to the top four.  Cincinnati appears to be the weakest team above them, followed by Oklahoma.  The logjam of Big Ten teams will start to loosen up once they start playing each other. 


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Donald Baker
(@donaldbaker)
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What about Cincinnati and Kentucky both in the top 11 at the same time?  Definitely will never see that again. The college football world will have a meltdown if Kentucky is able to beat Georgia next week. 🤪 

Also, look at how well the B1G Conference is represented!  Maybe the SEC isn't the best football conference afterall.

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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