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Do you believe the presidential polls are accurate? Poll is created on Oct 26, 2020

  
  
  

Are The Polls Accurate?


Donald Baker
(@donaldbaker)
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Do you believe the polls are telling the truth? 

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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Donald Baker
(@donaldbaker)
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Topic starter  

If you think the polling method is flawed please elaborate on how.

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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Phidippides
(@phidippides)
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Based on what I have heard, a lot of conservatives lie to pollsters about whom they will vote.  Not sure if this is just anecdotal or a widespread activity.  This could also include people who are too afraid to tell pollsters about their choice.

 


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Donald Baker
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Yeah, but there are a larger number of registered Democrats voting in these polls.  Could be they registered Democrat so they can vote in primaries in certain states, but you never really know.  The Silent Majority may be skewing the polls like you are saying too.

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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Phidippides
(@phidippides)
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So the answer to the question was, "No, the polls are not accurate".  Why not?  That's an open question, but they pretty much all skewed in favor of Biden, sometimes with spectacularly wrong results.

Why does this matter?  Because polls can help steer public sentiment toward one side:

The researchers asked a selected group of voters to state their opinions on a variety of real public policy questions, and then presented them with fabricated poll results on the same topics. When the test subjects learned that a large number of experts favored a position, opinions shifted by 11.3%. But the "opinions of people like me" changed opinions by just 6.2%, while a general poll saying that a majority of people favored one side or the other moved the needle by 8.1%.

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/how-polls-influence-behavior

So if positive polling for Biden leading up to the election moved the dial by even 5%, that could explain several of his purported victories in battleground states.

In addition, polls can help with fundraising, as people will be more likely to donate if they think their candidate has a good chance of winning.


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Donald Baker
(@donaldbaker)
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Topic starter  

The polling was pretty much propaganda fodder for the coup....that is looking ever more likely to succeed now.

Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.


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