So Trump and Biden had their first debate tonight, and it was a disaster for Biden. Dems are melting down given his performance which reflects what the right has said all along - he's cognitively impaired and is not capable of serving as the next POTUS (or even POTUS right now). Trump, in contrast, looked energetic and alive, even if his debate performance wasn't perfect.
What do Dems do now? They are certainly talking of replacing him, but this would have its own thorny problems. Here are the possible scenarios as I see them:
- Joe stays in the race. This could happen if he rebounds enough at the second debate, or if he/his handlers outright refuse to drop out. They might be banking on the chance that Trump will be in jail at the time of the election, making Biden the choice by default.
- Kamala takes over. It's possible that Biden is 25th Amendmented, which would put Kamala in charge, and the presumed heir-apparent. I think she would be a truly horrible candidate and I would see no chance of her winning (heck - she got only 2% of Dem support before dropping out in the 2020 Democratic primaries).
- Newsom gets the nomination. He'd have to hurdle over Kamala to do this, which would ruffle some feathers (I've already heard that the idea of a lesser-qualified white man bypassing a black woman would be offensive to some). I think on paper, Newsom is a relatively strong candidate, but objectively he probably is not known by a huge chunk of the population, and it would be hard to get him name recognition in a matter of months.
- Michelle Obama gets the nod. This would probably be something Kamala would go along with, and it would certainly energize a lot of Democrats. However, it's hard to imagine that a lot of non-black voters would go along with this given that she seems to have zero experience with anything outside her past job as FLOTUS.
- Hillary steps up. She would have a lot of name recognition, although not all positive, even within Democratic circles. On the plus side for Dems, she would have enough connections and a machine that could be quickly set up to drive her campaign.
At this point, I don't think any of these options are very strong for the Democrats. This may very well push them to their backup option, which is to throw Trump in jail. Of course, if this happens, we're headed for some serious trouble.
So Biden isn't well enough to be questioned on the witness stand in a trial setting according to doctors.
He isn't well enough to campaign for another term as President.
Wouldn't the above two mean he isn't qualified to be President now? Biden probably is negotiating a deal with the DNC for Hunter or whatever he thinks he can get in exchange for him dropping out gracefully and resigning as President so Kamala can take over avoiding the 25th Amendment. Then Michelle or Hillary or whoever will be nominated at the convention.
Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.
These next few weeks are going to be crazy. Democrats have to be imploding now because of their options. I actually do think Biden/his family/handlers may be correct that he still has a better chance of winning than an alternative. After all, Biden already has his campaign in place, he's familiar to voters, and he could argue that he has enough assistants around him to run the country smoothly even if Biden himself isn't all there.
I'm actually surprised that we haven't seen more rioting to rile up the left's base this summer. Maybe that will be pushed back to late summer/early fall this year. I do expect it to happen as the left starts to get anxious that they will lose the election, and as the media wants a new issue that it can frame to hammer Trump.
Tucker had a good comment, although I have to wonder how accurate he is in saying that Biden is done for. David Axelrod (among others) think that Biden is still in it. In any case, get ready for some political history in the making in the next week or so...the history books will be writing about this moment for quite some time.
Biden is done. Bet on it. Too many prominent Democrats have suggested he’s brain damaged. They can’t walk that back. They have to remove him, and they will. The only question is when. If they’re smart, they’ll do it immediately. If Kamala’s going to be the nominee, she might as…
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) July 2, 2024
Based on the chatter I'm seeing, Kamala Harris is now becoming the favorite to replace Biden. Not sure exactly how this would play out. I also heard that she would inherit Biden's campaign funds if he bows out, whereas someone else (e.g. Newsom) would not. This would give her a significant money advantage over her Democratic rivals.
That's just it. They don't have anyone that moves the needle any better than Sleepy Joe. The longer Joe holds out, the harder it will be for their replacement to establish their name with the voters. Hillary is a retread, so she's out. Michelle doesn't appear to want it. Newsom is a flaky creep that everyone dislikes. Bernie is crazy etc... There is one name floating under the radar though...Governor Andy Beshear. I've heard his name mentioned. God I cannot stand him.
Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.
Well it looks like 15 minutes ago, Biden announced he's dropping out of the race. Was this Pelosi's doing?
It seemed like the civil war within the Democratic Party was really ramping up in the past few weeks. If Kamala is passed over for a white dude, will this mean the civil war in the party continues in a new form?
What's even crazier is that some people have noticed that we haven't seen Joe Biden himself talk about his decision. We only saw it in the statement from his Twitter account. They've apparently cleared his schedule for the next week or so, meaning there are no plans for him to discuss his decision. Apparently when LBJ decided against running in 1968, he gave a lengthy public address about his reasons.
I know this sounds crazy, but what if this statement was sent out without Joe's consent? What if some kind of soft coup was instigated by members of Biden's own administration and party? Remember how strongly Biden said in public that he was in the race only about three days ago. And now this? It's all so strange.
There are rumors going around that he was put into hospice and was dying or already dead. These kinds of rumors are the very reason why you go out and hold a press conference telling the public what is going on and why.
Even if Trump were to be revealed as the Dark Lord of the Sith, he's still better than the last four presidents we've had.
I heard those rumors last night, and today it turns out they weren't true (he was filmed walking to his Air Force 1 today). I don't know if you know who Laura Loomer is, but she was one of the people pushing this. She's a fringe figure whose schtick is often to make outlandish or shocking claims. Unfortunately, Trump evidently likes her, so she's in the MAGA orbit.
Anyway, Bret Weinstein offered a hypothesis that this was all a psyop. He said that the story of Biden "disappearing" or even "dead" could have been designed to be low-hanging fruit for people on the right who would claim a conspiracy was going on. Then, Biden would reveal himself, and Democrats could then dismiss "conspiracy theorists" on the right. This would then allow the Democrats to continue with whatever shenanigans they're doing while being able to publicly dismiss "conspiracies" from the right.
I'm not sure I buy the hypothesis, but I thought it was intriguing.
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